4 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-09-08 03:35 CST · 捉妖器
0.023718
-7.7% 24h
量 $57.7M
主跌·收网
继续做空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 08/25 | 0.010573 | 0.0114 | 0.010213 | 0.011023 | +4.3% | 11.6% | 267,291K | 缩量 |
| 08/26 | 0.011016 | 0.011392 | 0.010571 | 0.011127 | +1.0% | 7.8% | 309,172K | 缩量 十字星 长下影 |
| 08/27 | 0.011134 | 0.014075 | 0.011113 | 0.013746 | +23.5% | 26.7% | 1,174,525K | 大阳 |
| 08/28 | 0.013746 | 0.014638 | 0.011431 | 0.012075 | -12.2% | 28.1% | 953,282K | 缩量 中阴 |
| 08/29 | 0.012077 | 0.02088 | 0.011897 | 0.017952 | +48.6% | 75.5% | 13,590,504K | 放量 大阳 |
| 08/30 | 0.017941 | 0.0218 | 0.014761 | 0.015233 | -15.1% | 47.7% | 11,427,508K | 中阴 长上影 |
| 08/31 | 0.015227 | 0.0172 | 0.013228 | 0.013474 | -11.5% | 30.0% | 2,457,551K | 中阴 |
| 09/01 | 0.013475 | 0.014574 | 0.012923 | 0.014078 | +4.5% | 12.8% | 1,037,321K | 缩量 |
| 09/02 | 0.014083 | 0.01633 | 0.013062 | 0.015886 | +12.8% | 25.0% | 1,091,300K | 缩量 中阳 |
| 09/03 | 0.015889 | 0.017202 | 0.014908 | 0.016874 | +6.2% | 15.4% | 1,219,070K | |
| 09/04 | 0.016884 | 0.02528 | 0.014965 | 0.023693 | +40.3% | 68.9% | 4,055,499K | 大阳 |
| 09/05 | 0.023697 | 0.035758 | 0.022534 | 0.032814 | +38.5% | 58.7% | 8,732,744K | 大阳 ★新高 |
| 09/06 | 0.032803 | 0.033218 | 0.022452 | 0.025405 | -22.6% | 48.0% | 3,265,949K | 大阴 |
| 09/07 | 0.025408 | 0.027904 | 0.02102 | 0.023718 | -6.7% | 32.7% | 2,168,524K | |
- 14日总涨幅+124%(垂直加速)
- 周平均K:当前连阳2周 | 该币史最长3周(26/07/27~26/08/10,+15%)
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 08/09 | $4.6M | |
| 08/10 | $5.8M | +24.8% |
| 08/11 | $5.0M | -13.4% |
| 08/12 | $4.3M | -14.2% |
| 08/13 | $4.3M | -0.9% |
| 08/14 | $3.9M | -7.2% |
| 08/15 | $4.0M | +1.8% |
| 08/16 | $4.0M | +0.6% |
| 08/17 | $4.2M | +5.1% |
| 08/18 | $4.5M | +6.4% |
| 08/19 | $4.2M | -6.0% |
| 08/20 | $4.4M | +3.3% |
| 08/21 | $4.6M | +5.0% |
| 08/22 | $4.7M | +1.1% |
| 08/23 | $4.1M | -12.4% |
| 08/24 | $4.2M | +2.3% |
| 08/25 | $4.0M | -3.2% |
| 08/26 | $4.3M | +6.6% |
| 08/27 | $4.3M | -0.7% |
| 08/28 | $5.9M | +37.6% |
| 08/29 | $4.7M | -20.0% |
| 08/30 | $11.0M | +132.9% |
| 08/31 | $7.6M | -30.9% |
| 09/01 | $6.1M | -18.9% |
| 09/02 | $6.4M | +3.8% |
| 09/03 | $7.5M | +17.5% |
| 09/04 | $7.9M | +5.1% |
| 09/05 | $12.4M | +57.3% |
| 09/06 | $18.1M | +46.7% |
| 09/07 | $12.0M | -33.6% |
- 当前OI $12.0M,占近30日峰值的66%
- 近7天OI变化+96%
- OI爆炸式增长——大量新杠杆仓位涌入
- 最近1日OI变化-34%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速下跌-10%
- 价涨OI涨:新仓涌入,杠杆驱动(同时做空燃料堆积)
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 08/05 00:02 | 多 | 28 | 40 | 98 | 118 | 0.00940698 | 0.00957545 |
| 08/05 22:03 | 多 | 39 | 30 | 122 | 125 | 0.0100841 | 0.0100763 |
| 08/09 02:03 | 多 | 39 | 32 | 139 | 160 | 0.0118533 | 0.0121027 |
| 08/12 06:03 | 多 | 43 | 31 | 162 | 173 | 0.01098 | 0.0114289 |
| 08/15 10:03 | 空 | 22 | 44 | 97 | 95 | 0.0103981 | 0.010427 |
| 08/18 13:03 | 多 | 40 | 27 | 140 | 134 | 0.0111903 | 0.0111457 |
| 08/21 17:03 | 空 | 28 | 82 | 94 | 180 | 0.0121282 | 0.0123702 |
| 08/24 21:03 | 空 | 37 | 73 | 98 | 145 | 0.0107995 | 0.0107854 |
| 08/28 01:03 | 多 | 86 | 33 | 190 | 193 | 0.0126943 | 0.0130986 |
| 08/31 05:03 | 空 | 105 | 60 | 330 | 334 | 0.0178924 | 0.0183209 |
| 09/03 08:03 | 空 | 44 | 93 | 160 | 217 | 0.0149986 | 0.0153718 |
| 09/05 10:33 | 多 | 106 | 71 | 431 | 448 | 0.0246122 | 0.0238171 |
| 09/06 05:33 | 多 | 104 | 74 | 391 | 477 | 0.0284289 | 0.0288866 |
| 09/07 00:33 | 空 | 63 | 97 | 329 | 400 | 0.0253924 | 0.0264248 |
| 09/07 19:33 | 空 | 50 | 67 | 127 | 160 | 0.0259988 | 0.0266042 |
- 数据跨度812小时(1062个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 28→50(+22)
- 空头巨鲸 40→67(+27)
- 多头交易员 98→127(+29)
- 空头交易员 118→160(+42)
- 多头成本 0.009407→0.026(+176.4%)
- 空头成本 0.009575→0.0266(+177.8%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -8.8%
- 空头浮盈亏 +10.8%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 09/04 16:00 | 0.0151% | |
| 09/04 20:00 | 0.0413% | |
| 09/05 00:00 | 0.0346% | |
| 09/05 04:00 | 0.0294% | |
| 09/05 08:00 | 0.0450% | |
| 09/05 12:00 | 0.0577% | |
| 09/05 16:00 | 0.0598% | |
| 09/05 20:00 | 0.0659% | |
| 09/06 00:00 | 0.0628% | |
| 09/06 04:00 | 0.1514% | |
| 09/06 08:00 | 0.0333% | |
| 09/06 12:00 | 0.0422% | |
| 09/06 16:00 | 0.0148% | |
| 09/06 20:00 | 0.0335% | |
| 09/07 00:00 | 0.0123% | |
| 09/07 04:00 | 0.0092% | |
| 09/07 08:00 | 0.0270% | |
| 09/07 12:00 | 0.0054% | |
| 09/07 16:00 | 0.0061% | |
| 09/07 20:00 | 0.0131% | |
| 09/08 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段主跌·收网
信号起始09-06 11:17 @ 0.024932 · 至今-4.9%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位70%
机会裁决SHORT · 继续做空
周期第2轮 · 5.34×
垂直爆发已疯 (107%)
OI$12.0M (峰值66%)
距本轮峰值33.7% · 2天
价格可操纵度100%
深盘锚定0%
类比≈HANA 见顶前52天
30天腰斩概率25%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第2轮曾拉升5倍(垂直爆发107%),见顶后2天已崩34%,现价仍是最初起点的3.5倍
- 距本轮峰值34%,破位下行
- OI 24h崩塌-12%
- 费率已回中性/转正0.005%
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.17M,占61%)
- 近7日从低点反弹+68%,当心它再拉一轮(那时该平掉空单)
操作建议: 崩后主跌:持仓量在崩、确认是真下跌(不是洗盘),可以正当做空;加仓到 60-80%:收网确认,已有安全垫,回弹处加
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 2个看跌
看跌 / 警惕信号
- 价涨OI涨:新仓涌入,杠杆驱动(同时做空燃料堆积)
- 阶段裁决:继续做空
场景推演
继续下跌
OI持续崩+费率中性/正 → 持空
死猫跳反弹
技术性超跌反弹(1-3天)+OI未重建 → 反弹衰竭加空
二轮启动
OI重建+费率再转负+抬高低点 → 平空离场