BTW 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-09-08 03:36 CST · 捉妖器
0.45247
+2.5% 24h
量 $22.6M
主跌·收网
观察·勿新开空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 08/25 | 0.45176 | 0.485 | 0.354 | 0.40851 | -9.6% | 37.0% | 253,805K | |
| 08/26 | 0.40854 | 0.44175 | 0.38307 | 0.40032 | -2.0% | 15.3% | 84,859K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 08/27 | 0.40038 | 0.40899 | 0.37811 | 0.39852 | -0.5% | 8.2% | 46,996K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 08/28 | 0.39859 | 0.4373 | 0.38811 | 0.42074 | +5.6% | 12.7% | 61,382K | |
| 08/29 | 0.42074 | 0.48782 | 0.38384 | 0.45721 | +8.7% | 27.1% | 71,652K | |
| 08/30 | 0.4572 | 0.47227 | 0.39004 | 0.40132 | -12.2% | 21.1% | 73,986K | 中阴 |
| 08/31 | 0.40128 | 0.42156 | 0.37 | 0.40662 | +1.3% | 13.9% | 52,563K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 09/01 | 0.40667 | 0.45366 | 0.38129 | 0.42026 | +3.3% | 19.0% | 63,840K | |
| 09/02 | 0.42026 | 0.75643 | 0.40903 | 0.49024 | +16.7% | 84.9% | 201,071K | 中阳 长上影 ★新高 |
| 09/03 | 0.49024 | 0.52 | 0.3939 | 0.45493 | -7.2% | 32.0% | 187,634K | |
| 09/04 | 0.45493 | 0.46448 | 0.43233 | 0.45704 | +0.5% | 7.4% | 37,297K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 09/05 | 0.45701 | 0.47678 | 0.4192 | 0.45278 | -0.9% | 13.7% | 44,882K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 09/06 | 0.45288 | 0.46737 | 0.43147 | 0.44784 | -1.1% | 8.3% | 29,751K | 十字星 |
| 09/07 | 0.44783 | 0.49365 | 0.404 | 0.45247 | +1.0% | 22.2% | 46,742K | 十字星 |
- 14日变化+0.2%(横盘整理)
- 周平均K:当前连阳7周 | 该币史最长7周(26/07/20~26/08/31,+552%)
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 08/09 | $44.5M | |
| 08/10 | $46.9M | +5.2% |
| 08/11 | $42.9M | -8.4% |
| 08/12 | $46.8M | +9.1% |
| 08/13 | $61.7M | +31.6% |
| 08/14 | $68.7M | +11.4% |
| 08/15 | $76.5M | +11.3% |
| 08/16 | $78.8M | +3.0% |
| 08/17 | $112.5M | +42.8% |
| 08/18 | $93.2M | -17.2% |
| 08/19 | $113.5M | +21.8% |
| 08/20 | $83.9M | -26.1% |
| 08/21 | $91.5M | +9.0% |
| 08/22 | $100.4M | +9.8% |
| 08/23 | $93.1M | -7.2% |
| 08/24 | $87.8M | -5.7% |
| 08/25 | $92.2M | +4.9% |
| 08/26 | $82.4M | -10.6% |
| 08/27 | $79.7M | -3.3% |
| 08/28 | $78.7M | -1.3% |
| 08/29 | $82.1M | +4.3% |
| 08/30 | $88.2M | +7.5% |
| 08/31 | $76.3M | -13.4% |
| 09/01 | $76.3M | -0.0% |
| 09/02 | $78.3M | +2.6% |
| 09/03 | $87.7M | +11.9% |
| 09/04 | $80.7M | -8.0% |
| 09/05 | $80.0M | -0.9% |
| 09/06 | $78.4M | -1.9% |
| 09/07 | $76.6M | -2.3% |
- 当前OI $76.6M,占近30日峰值的67%
- 近7天OI变化+0%
- 最近1日OI变化-2%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 08/05 00:02 | 空 | 45 | 46 | 244 | 282 | 0.117198 | 0.124989 |
| 08/07 09:48 | 空 | 39 | 53 | 181 | 279 | 0.180825 | 0.183701 |
| 08/09 19:48 | 多 | 47 | 62 | 381 | 326 | 0.194364 | 0.191901 |
| 08/12 05:48 | 空 | 28 | 66 | 213 | 297 | 0.204343 | 0.204089 |
| 08/14 15:48 | 空 | 54 | 62 | 324 | 395 | 0.280944 | 0.279482 |
| 08/17 01:48 | 空 | 45 | 63 | 337 | 535 | 0.357386 | 0.348648 |
| 08/19 11:48 | 空 | 55 | 96 | 602 | 823 | 0.606359 | 0.56394 |
| 08/21 21:48 | 空 | 48 | 129 | 321 | 467 | 0.466432 | 0.473331 |
| 08/24 07:33 | 空 | 77 | 107 | 253 | 308 | 0.420438 | 0.430318 |
| 08/26 17:33 | 空 | 52 | 130 | 221 | 312 | 0.412063 | 0.414104 |
| 08/29 03:33 | 空 | 97 | 95 | 261 | 195 | 0.414792 | 0.409394 |
| 08/31 13:33 | 空 | 66 | 87 | 178 | 218 | 0.40842 | 0.4033 |
| 09/02 23:33 | 空 | 81 | 128 | 336 | 393 | 0.518788 | 0.614432 |
| 09/05 09:33 | 空 | 59 | 122 | 202 | 258 | 0.454561 | 0.453911 |
| 09/07 19:33 | 空 | 75 | 78 | 154 | 151 | 0.448357 | 0.452628 |
- 数据跨度812小时(3247个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 45→75(+30)
- 空头巨鲸 46→78(+32)
- 多头交易员 244→154(-90)
- 空头交易员 282→151(-131)
- 多头成本 0.1172→0.4484(+282.6%)
- 空头成本 0.125→0.4526(+262.1%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +0.9%
- 空头浮盈亏 +0.0%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 09/04 16:00 | 0.0354% | |
| 09/04 20:00 | 0.0374% | |
| 09/05 00:00 | 0.0456% | |
| 09/05 04:00 | 0.0194% | |
| 09/05 08:00 | 0.0292% | |
| 09/05 12:00 | 0.0334% | |
| 09/05 16:00 | 0.0445% | |
| 09/05 20:00 | 0.0422% | |
| 09/06 00:00 | 0.0490% | |
| 09/06 04:00 | 0.0406% | |
| 09/06 08:00 | 0.0333% | |
| 09/06 12:00 | 0.0438% | |
| 09/06 16:00 | 0.0422% | |
| 09/06 20:00 | 0.0349% | |
| 09/07 00:00 | 0.0171% | |
| 09/07 04:00 | 0.0385% | |
| 09/07 08:00 | 0.0460% | |
| 09/07 12:00 | 0.0413% | |
| 09/07 16:00 | 0.0203% | |
| 09/07 20:00 | 0.0303% | |
| 09/08 00:00 | 0.0320% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段主跌·收网
信号起始08-21 00:47 @ 0.41089 · 至今+10.1%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观察·勿新开空
周期第2轮 · 15.5×
垂直爆发已疯 (66%)
OI$76.6M (峰值68%)
距本轮峰值41.9% · 19天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度100%
深盘锚定0%
类比≈LIGHT 见顶后14天
30天腰斩概率38%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第2轮曾拉升16倍(垂直爆发66%),见顶后19天已崩42%,现价仍是最初起点的9.0倍
- 距本轮峰值42%,破位下行
- 费率已回中性/转正0.032%
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.13M,占55%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 只观察、先不建仓:已暴涨崩过。盯它会不会再拉一轮(那是平空信号)还是彻底归零,别在这里追空(崩后反弹很容易把空单绞掉)
六、综合研判
信号统计: 0个看涨 vs 0个看跌
场景推演
继续下跌
OI持续崩+费率中性/正 → 持空
死猫跳反弹
技术性超跌反弹(1-3天)+OI未重建 → 反弹衰竭加空
二轮启动
OI重建+费率再转负+抬高低点 → 平空离场