ON 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-09-08 03:36 CST · 捉妖器
0.1729
-4.5% 24h
量 $3.9M
余震
观望
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 08/25 | 0.2537 | 0.2647 | 0.2425 | 0.2547 | +0.4% | 9.2% | 19,676K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 08/26 | 0.2546 | 0.2567 | 0.2409 | 0.2513 | -1.3% | 6.6% | 12,900K | 长下影 |
| 08/27 | 0.2513 | 0.2836 | 0.2446 | 0.2491 | -0.9% | 15.9% | 21,085K | 十字星 长上影 ★新高 |
| 08/28 | 0.2491 | 0.2635 | 0.2354 | 0.256 | +2.8% | 11.9% | 15,767K | |
| 08/29 | 0.2561 | 0.2726 | 0.2552 | 0.2615 | +2.1% | 6.8% | 15,993K | 长上影 |
| 08/30 | 0.2615 | 0.2634 | 0.2407 | 0.2437 | -6.8% | 9.4% | 10,126K | |
| 08/31 | 0.2436 | 0.25 | 0.2253 | 0.2344 | -3.8% | 11.0% | 13,678K | |
| 09/01 | 0.2346 | 0.2359 | 0.2255 | 0.2301 | -1.9% | 4.6% | 8,673K | |
| 09/02 | 0.2299 | 0.2424 | 0.2294 | 0.2357 | +2.5% | 5.7% | 8,470K | 长上影 |
| 09/03 | 0.2357 | 0.2389 | 0.2267 | 0.2294 | -2.7% | 5.4% | 7,752K | |
| 09/04 | 0.2292 | 0.2301 | 0.2061 | 0.2207 | -3.7% | 11.6% | 21,775K | 长下影 |
| 09/05 | 0.2207 | 0.2234 | 0.2091 | 0.2104 | -4.7% | 6.8% | 8,068K | |
| 09/06 | 0.2104 | 0.2148 | 0.1766 | 0.1793 | -14.8% | 21.6% | 23,543K | 中阴 |
| 09/07 | 0.1792 | 0.1818 | 0.1683 | 0.1729 | -3.5% | 8.0% | 19,961K | |
- 连续5根阴线
- 14日总跌幅-32%(持续下跌)
- 周平均K:当前连阳0周 | 该币史最长6周(26/07/06~26/08/10,+337%)
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 08/09 | $16.4M | |
| 08/10 | $17.5M | +6.4% |
| 08/11 | $19.0M | +8.6% |
| 08/12 | $18.7M | -1.6% |
| 08/13 | $17.8M | -4.6% |
| 08/14 | $19.1M | +7.5% |
| 08/15 | $16.5M | -14.0% |
| 08/16 | $17.7M | +7.8% |
| 08/17 | $18.0M | +1.6% |
| 08/18 | $15.9M | -11.5% |
| 08/19 | $13.3M | -16.3% |
| 08/20 | $12.5M | -6.6% |
| 08/21 | $13.1M | +5.2% |
| 08/22 | $12.9M | -1.2% |
| 08/23 | $11.6M | -10.0% |
| 08/24 | $11.2M | -3.7% |
| 08/25 | $11.5M | +2.5% |
| 08/26 | $11.5M | +0.2% |
| 08/27 | $11.3M | -1.9% |
| 08/28 | $11.2M | -1.0% |
| 08/29 | $11.4M | +1.8% |
| 08/30 | $11.6M | +1.9% |
| 08/31 | $10.8M | -7.3% |
| 09/01 | $10.3M | -3.8% |
| 09/02 | $10.1M | -2.5% |
| 09/03 | $10.2M | +0.6% |
| 09/04 | $9.8M | -3.4% |
| 09/05 | $9.5M | -2.6% |
| 09/06 | $9.0M | -5.4% |
| 09/07 | $7.7M | -14.6% |
- 当前OI $7.7M,占近30日峰值的40%
- 近7天OI变化-26%
- 最近1日OI变化-15%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 08/05 00:02 | 空 | 54 | 47 | 199 | 160 | 0.250267 | 0.247913 |
| 08/07 09:48 | 空 | 47 | 57 | 275 | 377 | 0.379073 | 0.394881 |
| 08/09 19:48 | 多 | 43 | 53 | 299 | 257 | 0.361271 | 0.359004 |
| 08/12 05:48 | 空 | 36 | 59 | 179 | 252 | 0.407364 | 0.402136 |
| 08/14 15:48 | 多 | 60 | 37 | 250 | 177 | 0.377154 | 0.395062 |
| 08/17 01:48 | 多 | 47 | 39 | 178 | 177 | 0.379377 | 0.384958 |
| 08/19 11:48 | 空 | 69 | 48 | 218 | 317 | 0.258895 | 0.275727 |
| 08/21 21:48 | 多 | 87 | 58 | 172 | 177 | 0.282044 | 0.287101 |
| 08/24 07:33 | 多 | 60 | 81 | 145 | 197 | 0.256391 | 0.254417 |
| 08/26 17:33 | 空 | 29 | 101 | 91 | 168 | 0.251019 | 0.250224 |
| 08/29 03:33 | 多 | 52 | 80 | 129 | 127 | 0.25111 | 0.252757 |
| 08/31 13:33 | 多 | 44 | 69 | 111 | 120 | 0.24593 | 0.245869 |
| 09/02 23:33 | 空 | 39 | 94 | 101 | 138 | 0.234855 | 0.234488 |
| 09/05 09:33 | 多 | 98 | 42 | 191 | 97 | 0.21624 | 0.218651 |
| 09/07 19:33 | 空 | 30 | 59 | 61 | 86 | 0.171035 | 0.175382 |
- 数据跨度812小时(3247个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 54→30(-24)
- 空头巨鲸 47→59(+12)
- 巨鲸从多头转向空头——聪明钱在赌反转
- 多头交易员 199→61(-138)
- 空头交易员 160→86(-74)
- 多头成本 0.2503→0.171(-31.7%)
- 空头成本 0.2479→0.1754(-29.3%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +1.1%
- 空头浮盈亏 +1.4%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 09/04 16:00 | 0.0083% | |
| 09/04 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 00:00 | 0.0175% | |
| 09/05 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 20:00 | 0.0097% | |
| 09/06 00:00 | 0.0146% | |
| 09/06 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/06 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/06 12:00 | 0.0121% | |
| 09/06 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/06 20:00 | 0.0076% | |
| 09/07 00:00 | 0.0058% | |
| 09/07 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/07 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/07 12:00 | 0.0093% | |
| 09/07 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/07 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/08 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始09-06 12:32 @ 0.2057 · 至今-15.9%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观望
周期第2轮 · 6.7×
垂直爆发已疯 (175%)
OI$7.7M (峰值40%)
距本轮峰值62.4% · 31天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度100%
深盘锚定0%
类比≈BULLA 见顶前183天
30天腰斩概率12%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第2轮曾拉升7倍(垂直爆发175%),见顶后31天已崩62%,现价仍是最初起点的2.5倍
- 距本轮峰值62%,见顶后31天,进入余震绞肉区
- T5:跌破7日低点7.9h,收回速度待判(≤8h收回=假破位勿追空)
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.03M,占69%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
- 聪明钱存量:巨鲸扎堆做多(127vs57只),多头成本0.248(浮亏30%)
- 聪明钱存量多头被深套-30%($2.6M)——价格再跌会爆他们的仓,下杀强平燃料
操作建议: 余震绞肉区,无明确方向/接近死透,观望
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 1个看跌
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空