PUMP 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-09-08 03:35 CST · 捉妖器
0.004381
+14.1% 24h
量 $343.4M
见顶·收割初期
观察·勿新开空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 08/25 | 0.004745 | 0.005004 | 0.00435 | 0.0045 | -5.2% | 15.0% | 70,875,150K | |
| 08/26 | 0.004499 | 0.004937 | 0.004432 | 0.004886 | +8.6% | 11.4% | 65,858,048K | |
| 08/27 | 0.004886 | 0.005032 | 0.004441 | 0.004875 | -0.2% | 13.3% | 67,225,294K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 08/28 | 0.004875 | 0.004942 | 0.004403 | 0.004626 | -5.1% | 12.2% | 56,494,714K | |
| 08/29 | 0.004626 | 0.005126 | 0.004553 | 0.005058 | +9.3% | 12.6% | 33,031,190K | ★新高 |
| 08/30 | 0.005058 | 0.005104 | 0.004343 | 0.00447 | -11.6% | 17.5% | 47,027,246K | 中阴 |
| 08/31 | 0.00447 | 0.00453 | 0.004175 | 0.004451 | -0.4% | 8.5% | 46,774,064K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 09/01 | 0.00445 | 0.004695 | 0.004219 | 0.004376 | -1.7% | 11.3% | 38,489,899K | 长上影 |
| 09/02 | 0.004376 | 0.004394 | 0.004007 | 0.004086 | -6.6% | 9.7% | 39,125,617K | |
| 09/03 | 0.004086 | 0.004548 | 0.004024 | 0.004318 | +5.7% | 13.0% | 43,860,311K | |
| 09/04 | 0.004319 | 0.004414 | 0.00406 | 0.004239 | -1.9% | 8.7% | 46,585,526K | 长下影 |
| 09/05 | 0.004238 | 0.004276 | 0.003835 | 0.003841 | -9.4% | 11.5% | 39,671,094K | |
| 09/06 | 0.003841 | 0.004122 | 0.00375 | 0.004017 | +4.6% | 9.9% | 65,261,795K | |
| 09/07 | 0.004018 | 0.004647 | 0.003901 | 0.004381 | +9.0% | 19.1% | 71,082,588K | |
- 14日变化-7.7%(横盘整理)
- 周平均K:当前连阳10周 | 该币史最长10周(26/06/29~26/08/31,+180%) ——受控抬轿指纹,维持周线连阳可能即操盘目标(在册周线榜:ESPORTS 22周+352%/US 15周+1163%进行中),终结常伴剧烈变盘
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 08/09 | $54.0M | |
| 08/10 | $59.7M | +10.6% |
| 08/11 | $65.3M | +9.3% |
| 08/12 | $60.7M | -7.1% |
| 08/13 | $58.5M | -3.5% |
| 08/14 | $62.6M | +6.9% |
| 08/15 | $57.4M | -8.3% |
| 08/16 | $55.6M | -3.1% |
| 08/17 | $52.6M | -5.5% |
| 08/18 | $53.7M | +2.1% |
| 08/19 | $63.0M | +17.3% |
| 08/20 | $57.7M | -8.4% |
| 08/21 | $71.6M | +24.1% |
| 08/22 | $78.2M | +9.3% |
| 08/23 | $106.2M | +35.7% |
| 08/24 | $119.9M | +12.9% |
| 08/25 | $102.4M | -14.5% |
| 08/26 | $101.5M | -0.9% |
| 08/27 | $124.0M | +22.3% |
| 08/28 | $122.3M | -1.4% |
| 08/29 | $111.7M | -8.6% |
| 08/30 | $120.4M | +7.8% |
| 08/31 | $104.9M | -12.9% |
| 09/01 | $101.1M | -3.6% |
| 09/02 | $97.2M | -3.9% |
| 09/03 | $89.6M | -7.8% |
| 09/04 | $95.2M | +6.2% |
| 09/05 | $93.7M | -1.5% |
| 09/06 | $86.6M | -7.7% |
| 09/07 | $93.9M | +8.5% |
- 当前OI $93.9M,占近30日峰值的76%
- 近7天OI变化-7%
- 最近1日OI变化+9%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速上涨+9%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 08/05 00:02 | 空 | 96 | 72 | 307 | 235 | 0.00227461 | 0.00230723 |
| 08/08 21:02 | 空 | 40 | 51 | 163 | 156 | 0.00231218 | 0.00230626 |
| 08/15 00:03 | 多 | 67 | 51 | 247 | 234 | 0.0028502 | 0.00283823 |
| 08/21 03:03 | 空 | 76 | 66 | 277 | 255 | 0.00363577 | 0.00361887 |
| 08/23 12:33 | 多 | 168 | 116 | 462 | 549 | 0.00490904 | 0.00493934 |
| 08/25 01:03 | 空 | 139 | 130 | 375 | 422 | 0.00487874 | 0.00491616 |
| 08/26 13:48 | 多 | 146 | 132 | 364 | 429 | 0.00463015 | 0.00469643 |
| 08/28 02:33 | 空 | 159 | 130 | 340 | 390 | 0.00482371 | 0.00484443 |
| 08/29 15:18 | 空 | 122 | 136 | 309 | 306 | 0.00464611 | 0.00470471 |
| 08/31 04:03 | 空 | 146 | 124 | 334 | 361 | 0.00460842 | 0.0046627 |
| 09/01 16:33 | 空 | 100 | 172 | 271 | 363 | 0.00447705 | 0.00447101 |
| 09/03 05:18 | 多 | 167 | 110 | 314 | 320 | 0.00411286 | 0.00414614 |
| 09/04 18:03 | 多 | 148 | 137 | 302 | 394 | 0.00424169 | 0.00431613 |
| 09/06 06:48 | 空 | 101 | 199 | 268 | 511 | 0.00402772 | 0.00403827 |
| 09/07 19:33 | 多 | 116 | 167 | 302 | 258 | 0.00435691 | 0.00426374 |
- 数据跨度812小时(2056个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 96→116(+20)
- 空头巨鲸 72→167(+95)
- 多头交易员 307→302(-5)
- 空头交易员 235→258(+23)
- 多头成本 0.002275→0.004357(+91.5%)
- 空头成本 0.002307→0.004264(+84.8%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +0.6%
- 空头浮盈亏 -2.8%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 09/04 16:00 | -0.0040% | |
| 09/04 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/06 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/06 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/06 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/06 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/06 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/06 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/07 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/07 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/07 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/07 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/07 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/07 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/08 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段见顶·收割初期
信号起始09-07 19:02 @ 0.004416 · 至今-0.8%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观察·勿新开空
周期第2轮 · 4.55×
垂直爆发已疯 (65%)
OI$93.9M (峰值76%)
距本轮峰值19.8% · 15天
价格可操纵度21%
深盘锚定79%
类比≈C 见顶后54天
30天腰斩概率12%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第2轮曾拉升5倍(垂直爆发65%),见顶后15天已崩20%,现价仍是最初起点的3.7倍
- 距本轮峰值已20%,见顶后15天(第2轮,4.6×)
- OI停止创新高(占峰值76%)
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($1.16M,占56%)
- 周平均K已连阳10周(该币史最长10周)——受控抬轿指纹,维持周线连阳可能即操盘目标(US案例),终结常伴剧烈变盘
操作建议: 只观察、先不建仓:已暴涨崩过。盯它会不会再拉一轮(那是平空信号)还是彻底归零,别在这里追空(崩后反弹很容易把空单绞掉)
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 1个看跌
看跌 / 警惕信号
- 周平均K:当前连阳10周 | 该币史最长10周(26/06/29~26/08/31,+180%) ——受控抬轿指纹,维持周线连阳可能即操盘目标(在册周线榜:ESPORTS 22周+352%/US 15周+1163%进行中),终结常伴剧烈变盘
场景推演
确认见顶·主跌开始
OI持续下降+多头爆仓加速 → 加仓做空
假见顶·再创新高
OI重新上行+费率再转负 → 割裂止损认错