TUT 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-09-08 03:35 CST · 捉妖器
0.02472
-2.9% 24h
量 $20.7M
余震
观望
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 08/25 | 0.0473 | 0.04981 | 0.04211 | 0.04471 | -5.5% | 18.3% | 3,337,361K | |
| 08/26 | 0.0447 | 0.05385 | 0.0447 | 0.05024 | +12.4% | 20.5% | 1,810,991K | 中阳 |
| 08/27 | 0.05025 | 0.06458 | 0.04788 | 0.04849 | -3.5% | 34.9% | 3,425,371K | 十字星 长上影 ★新高 |
| 08/28 | 0.04849 | 0.04946 | 0.03666 | 0.0385 | -20.6% | 34.9% | 1,945,087K | 大阴 |
| 08/29 | 0.0385 | 0.04268 | 0.03162 | 0.03566 | -7.4% | 35.0% | 2,892,541K | |
| 08/30 | 0.03566 | 0.03706 | 0.03367 | 0.03428 | -3.9% | 10.1% | 1,640,387K | |
| 08/31 | 0.03428 | 0.03629 | 0.02989 | 0.03017 | -12.0% | 21.4% | 1,407,814K | 中阴 |
| 09/01 | 0.03017 | 0.03439 | 0.02628 | 0.03057 | +1.3% | 30.9% | 1,904,027K | 十字星 |
| 09/02 | 0.03057 | 0.03132 | 0.02426 | 0.02499 | -18.3% | 29.1% | 1,490,954K | 中阴 |
| 09/03 | 0.02499 | 0.02666 | 0.02222 | 0.02398 | -4.0% | 20.0% | 1,627,750K | |
| 09/04 | 0.02398 | 0.02511 | 0.02163 | 0.02344 | -2.3% | 16.1% | 1,436,529K | 长下影 |
| 09/05 | 0.02343 | 0.02993 | 0.02273 | 0.02802 | +19.6% | 31.7% | 3,065,570K | 中阳 |
| 09/06 | 0.02803 | 0.02883 | 0.02455 | 0.02562 | -8.6% | 17.4% | 1,156,232K | |
| 09/07 | 0.02561 | 0.02604 | 0.02393 | 0.02472 | -3.5% | 8.8% | 715,834K | |
- 14日总跌幅-48%(持续下跌)
- 周平均K:当前连阳0周 | 该币史最长9周(25/06/02~25/07/28,+104%)
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 08/09 | $48.4M | |
| 08/10 | $62.0M | +28.3% |
| 08/11 | $30.6M | -50.6% |
| 08/12 | $20.9M | -31.7% |
| 08/13 | $17.9M | -14.7% |
| 08/14 | $12.5M | -30.2% |
| 08/15 | $11.9M | -4.9% |
| 08/16 | $12.3M | +3.7% |
| 08/17 | $11.9M | -3.2% |
| 08/18 | $16.0M | +34.6% |
| 08/19 | $13.5M | -16.0% |
| 08/20 | $10.7M | -20.6% |
| 08/21 | $12.2M | +14.0% |
| 08/22 | $14.5M | +18.6% |
| 08/23 | $21.7M | +50.2% |
| 08/24 | $21.5M | -1.0% |
| 08/25 | $17.0M | -20.8% |
| 08/26 | $16.0M | -5.8% |
| 08/27 | $15.1M | -6.1% |
| 08/28 | $13.1M | -12.9% |
| 08/29 | $10.4M | -20.8% |
| 08/30 | $12.7M | +22.4% |
| 08/31 | $13.7M | +7.8% |
| 09/01 | $12.0M | -12.6% |
| 09/02 | $11.7M | -2.4% |
| 09/03 | $9.8M | -16.6% |
| 09/04 | $9.9M | +1.5% |
| 09/05 | $10.3M | +3.6% |
| 09/06 | $11.7M | +14.2% |
| 09/07 | $9.9M | -15.2% |
- 当前OI $9.9M,占近30日峰值的16%
- 近7天OI变化-17%
- 最近1日OI变化-15%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 08/05 00:02 | 空 | 49 | 71 | 170 | 294 | 0.0225518 | 0.0226916 |
| 08/07 12:02 | 多 | 47 | 45 | 177 | 257 | 0.0277774 | 0.0276531 |
| 08/09 21:48 | 空 | 63 | 143 | 598 | 1221 | 0.165576 | 0.186258 |
| 08/12 07:33 | 空 | 84 | 55 | 507 | 537 | 0.0775612 | 0.0943196 |
| 08/14 17:18 | 多 | 80 | 63 | 419 | 583 | 0.0357732 | 0.0352638 |
| 08/17 03:18 | 空 | 47 | 68 | 355 | 314 | 0.0334609 | 0.0331427 |
| 08/19 13:03 | 空 | 58 | 58 | 247 | 488 | 0.040788 | 0.0409891 |
| 08/21 22:48 | 多 | 112 | 99 | 354 | 318 | 0.0388753 | 0.0372171 |
| 08/24 08:33 | 空 | 134 | 129 | 554 | 659 | 0.0663036 | 0.0726611 |
| 08/26 18:18 | 空 | 108 | 125 | 296 | 343 | 0.0481042 | 0.0505489 |
| 08/29 04:18 | 空 | 99 | 141 | 302 | 424 | 0.0432613 | 0.0437459 |
| 08/31 14:03 | 空 | 97 | 108 | 327 | 254 | 0.0348053 | 0.0344573 |
| 09/02 23:48 | 多 | 135 | 77 | 300 | 301 | 0.0266754 | 0.0272842 |
| 09/05 09:33 | 多 | 90 | 128 | 331 | 317 | 0.0238602 | 0.023934 |
| 09/07 19:33 | 空 | 57 | 68 | 117 | 160 | 0.0249748 | 0.0249992 |
- 数据跨度812小时(3238个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 49→57(+8)
- 空头巨鲸 71→68(-3)
- 多头交易员 170→117(-53)
- 空头交易员 294→160(-134)
- 多头成本 0.02255→0.02497(+10.7%)
- 空头成本 0.02269→0.025(+10.2%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -1.0%
- 空头浮盈亏 +1.1%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 09/04 16:00 | -0.1866% | |
| 09/04 20:00 | -0.1013% | |
| 09/05 00:00 | -0.1026% | |
| 09/05 04:00 | -0.0401% | |
| 09/05 08:00 | -0.0167% | |
| 09/05 12:00 | -0.0068% | |
| 09/05 16:00 | -0.0004% | |
| 09/05 20:00 | -0.0102% | |
| 09/06 00:00 | -0.0229% | |
| 09/06 04:00 | -0.0252% | |
| 09/06 08:00 | -0.0019% | |
| 09/06 12:00 | -0.0115% | |
| 09/06 16:00 | -0.0198% | |
| 09/06 20:00 | -0.0159% | |
| 09/07 00:00 | -0.0520% | |
| 09/07 04:00 | -0.0365% | |
| 09/07 08:00 | -0.0589% | |
| 09/07 12:00 | -0.0278% | |
| 09/07 16:00 | -0.0018% | |
| 09/07 20:00 | -0.0355% | |
| 09/08 00:00 | -0.0237% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始08-28 02:18 @ 0.05181 · 至今-52.3%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观望
周期第2轮 · 40.89×
垂直爆发已疯 (724%)
OI$9.9M (峰值16%)
距本轮峰值92.7% · 29天
二轮风险低 · 9%
价格可操纵度43%
深盘锚定57%
类比≈MMT 见顶前247天
30天腰斩概率12%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第2轮曾拉升41倍(垂直爆发724%),见顶后29天已崩93%,现价仍是最初起点的3.0倍
- 距本轮峰值93%,见顶后29天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h多头爆仓主导($0.18M,占59%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈9%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
- 聪明钱存量多头被深套-27%($1.1M)——价格再跌会爆他们的仓,下杀强平燃料
操作建议: 余震绞肉区,无明确方向/接近死透,观望
六、综合研判
信号统计: 0个看涨 vs 0个看跌
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空