US 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-09-08 03:35 CST · 捉妖器
0.015402
-4.7% 24h
量 $1.7M
余震
观望
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 08/25 | 0.016491 | 0.01664 | 0.014269 | 0.014999 | -9.0% | 16.6% | 530,200K | |
| 08/26 | 0.015003 | 0.017344 | 0.013811 | 0.015445 | +2.9% | 25.6% | 470,704K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 08/27 | 0.015451 | 0.01789 | 0.015351 | 0.017091 | +10.6% | 16.5% | 284,298K | 中阳 |
| 08/28 | 0.017105 | 0.01916 | 0.016947 | 0.018742 | +9.6% | 13.1% | 277,902K | |
| 08/29 | 0.01875 | 0.020323 | 0.017294 | 0.018367 | -2.0% | 17.5% | 449,451K | 十字星 长上影 ★新高 |
| 08/30 | 0.018373 | 0.018507 | 0.016595 | 0.016749 | -8.8% | 11.5% | 166,836K | |
| 08/31 | 0.016758 | 0.017852 | 0.016182 | 0.016683 | -0.4% | 10.3% | 123,343K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 09/01 | 0.016699 | 0.016845 | 0.015675 | 0.01606 | -3.8% | 7.5% | 87,057K | |
| 09/02 | 0.016073 | 0.017349 | 0.015949 | 0.016478 | +2.5% | 8.8% | 228,653K | 长上影 |
| 09/03 | 0.016496 | 0.017779 | 0.015351 | 0.017209 | +4.3% | 15.8% | 141,696K | |
| 09/04 | 0.017233 | 0.017328 | 0.015487 | 0.01645 | -4.5% | 11.9% | 138,369K | 长下影 |
| 09/05 | 0.016467 | 0.016928 | 0.01597 | 0.016337 | -0.8% | 6.0% | 81,772K | 十字星 |
| 09/06 | 0.016341 | 0.016693 | 0.015956 | 0.016059 | -1.7% | 4.6% | 60,135K | 缩量 |
| 09/07 | 0.016067 | 0.016397 | 0.015197 | 0.015402 | -4.1% | 7.9% | 98,018K | |
- 连续4根阴线
- 近3日均量萎缩至之前的20%(缩量)
- 14日变化-6.6%(横盘整理)
- 周平均K:当前连阳0周 | 该币史最长15周(26/04/27~26/08/03,+947%)
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 08/09 | $23.2M | |
| 08/10 | $24.2M | +4.1% |
| 08/11 | $22.0M | -9.0% |
| 08/12 | $19.3M | -12.3% |
| 08/13 | $15.6M | -19.0% |
| 08/14 | $13.7M | -12.4% |
| 08/15 | $9.5M | -30.9% |
| 08/16 | $10.0M | +5.2% |
| 08/17 | $10.9M | +9.0% |
| 08/18 | $9.3M | -14.1% |
| 08/19 | $8.9M | -4.6% |
| 08/20 | $9.5M | +7.1% |
| 08/21 | $10.6M | +11.6% |
| 08/22 | $14.5M | +36.7% |
| 08/23 | $13.3M | -8.5% |
| 08/24 | $11.6M | -12.9% |
| 08/25 | $11.4M | -1.6% |
| 08/26 | $10.5M | -8.1% |
| 08/27 | $10.7M | +1.9% |
| 08/28 | $11.6M | +8.4% |
| 08/29 | $12.5M | +8.5% |
| 08/30 | $12.1M | -3.2% |
| 08/31 | $11.1M | -8.5% |
| 09/01 | $11.0M | -1.0% |
| 09/02 | $10.6M | -3.7% |
| 09/03 | $10.7M | +1.3% |
| 09/04 | $11.1M | +3.2% |
| 09/05 | $10.6M | -4.6% |
| 09/06 | $10.5M | -1.0% |
| 09/07 | $10.3M | -2.0% |
- 当前OI $10.3M,占近30日峰值的42%
- 近7天OI变化-7%
- 最近1日OI变化-2%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 08/05 00:02 | 多 | 38 | 54 | 149 | 194 | 0.0527294 | 0.0520502 |
| 08/07 09:48 | 多 | 36 | 46 | 116 | 195 | 0.0564072 | 0.0550259 |
| 08/09 19:48 | 多 | 61 | 42 | 267 | 250 | 0.0472645 | 0.0464234 |
| 08/12 05:48 | 空 | 56 | 44 | 201 | 201 | 0.0374905 | 0.0375285 |
| 08/14 15:48 | 空 | 57 | 56 | 222 | 289 | 0.0218208 | 0.0220374 |
| 08/17 01:48 | 多 | 64 | 35 | 219 | 145 | 0.0182016 | 0.0184971 |
| 08/19 11:48 | 空 | 49 | 38 | 154 | 158 | 0.0166554 | 0.0166556 |
| 08/21 21:48 | 空 | 88 | 63 | 203 | 206 | 0.0197439 | 0.0199315 |
| 08/24 07:33 | 多 | 72 | 81 | 166 | 225 | 0.0184898 | 0.0184354 |
| 08/26 17:33 | 多 | 57 | 94 | 148 | 157 | 0.0151544 | 0.015561 |
| 08/29 03:33 | 空 | 41 | 105 | 133 | 156 | 0.0177506 | 0.0181827 |
| 08/31 13:33 | 空 | 65 | 68 | 105 | 132 | 0.0170607 | 0.0170065 |
| 09/02 23:33 | 空 | 41 | 100 | 91 | 153 | 0.0165954 | 0.0165873 |
| 09/05 09:33 | 空 | 43 | 43 | 105 | 107 | 0.0163412 | 0.0161068 |
| 09/07 19:33 | 多 | 34 | 49 | 89 | 73 | 0.0159409 | 0.0159502 |
- 数据跨度812小时(3247个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 38→34(-4)
- 空头巨鲸 54→49(-5)
- 多头交易员 149→89(-60)
- 空头交易员 194→73(-121)
- 多头成本 0.05273→0.01594(-69.8%)
- 空头成本 0.05205→0.01595(-69.4%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -3.4%
- 空头浮盈亏 +3.4%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 09/04 16:00 | 0.0104% | |
| 09/04 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 08:00 | 0.0227% | |
| 09/05 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/05 20:00 | 0.0062% | |
| 09/06 00:00 | 0.0156% | |
| 09/06 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/06 08:00 | 0.0195% | |
| 09/06 12:00 | 0.0144% | |
| 09/06 16:00 | 0.0229% | |
| 09/06 20:00 | 0.0073% | |
| 09/07 00:00 | 0.0110% | |
| 09/07 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 09/07 08:00 | 0.0180% | |
| 09/07 12:00 | 0.0056% | |
| 09/07 16:00 | 0.0141% | |
| 09/07 20:00 | 0.0261% | |
| 09/08 00:00 | 0.0156% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始08-29 22:33 @ 0.019474 · 至今-20.9%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观望
周期第1轮 · 22.27×
垂直爆发已疯 (116%)
OI$10.3M (峰值40%)
距本轮峰值75.3% · 42天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度90%
深盘锚定10%
类比≈CLO 见顶前50天
30天腰斩概率0%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第1轮曾拉升22倍(垂直爆发116%),见顶后42天已崩75%,现价仍是最初起点的5.5倍
- 距本轮峰值75%,见顶后42天,进入余震绞肉区
- T5:7日低点破位后0.6h快速收回——假破位/防守签名(量化:中位+4.3%,勿追空)
- 近4h多头爆仓主导($0.09M,占86%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
- 聪明钱存量多头被深套-41%($1.9M)——价格再跌会爆他们的仓,下杀强平燃料
操作建议: 余震绞肉区,无明确方向/接近死透,观望
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 1个看跌
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空